Strong early-season activity has positioned the US on track for an above-average 2026 tornado total, driving the market's heavy weighting toward 1250+. Through mid-August, preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports show elevated counts, with Illinois alone confirming over 200 tornadoes—more than triple its annual average—and multiple spring outbreaks, including a notably active March exceeding 200 confirmed events. Regional anomalies in the Midwest, combined with atmospheric patterns such as moisture surges and steering influences, have sustained higher frequencies than climatological baselines of roughly 1,200–1,300 per year. Remaining months could moderate totals if late-season conditions weaken, yet current observational trends and model guidance support the dominant 1250+ implied probability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.5%
1150–1199 7.8%
1100–1149 3.9%
$81,752 Обс.
$81,752 Обс.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
2%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
8%
1200–1249
9%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.5%
1150–1199 7.8%
1100–1149 3.9%
$81,752 Обс.
$81,752 Обс.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 Обс.
2%
950–999
$3,618 Обс.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Обс.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Обс.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Обс.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 Обс.
8%
1200–1249
$15,917 Обс.
9%
1250+
$18,543 Обс.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong early-season activity has positioned the US on track for an above-average 2026 tornado total, driving the market's heavy weighting toward 1250+. Through mid-August, preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports show elevated counts, with Illinois alone confirming over 200 tornadoes—more than triple its annual average—and multiple spring outbreaks, including a notably active March exceeding 200 confirmed events. Regional anomalies in the Midwest, combined with atmospheric patterns such as moisture surges and steering influences, have sustained higher frequencies than climatological baselines of roughly 1,200–1,300 per year. Remaining months could moderate totals if late-season conditions weaken, yet current observational trends and model guidance support the dominant 1250+ implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Обсяг
$81,752Дата завершення
Jan 10, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong early-season activity has positioned the US on track for an above-average 2026 tornado total, driving the market's heavy weighting toward 1250+. Through mid-August, preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports show elevated counts, with Illinois alone confirming over 200 tornadoes—more than triple its annual average—and multiple spring outbreaks, including a notably active March exceeding 200 confirmed events. Regional anomalies in the Midwest, combined with atmospheric patterns such as moisture surges and steering influences, have sustained higher frequencies than climatological baselines of roughly 1,200–1,300 per year. Remaining months could moderate totals if late-season conditions weaken, yet current observational trends and model guidance support the dominant 1250+ implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Обсяг
$81,752Дата завершення
Jan 10, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong early-season activity has positioned the US on track for an above-average 2026 tornado total, driving the market's heavy weighting toward 1250+. Through mid-August, preliminary Storm Prediction Center reports show elevated counts, with Illinois alone confirming over 200 tornadoes—more than triple its annual average—and multiple spring outbreaks, including a notably active March exceeding 200 confirmed events. Regional anomalies in the Midwest, combined with atmospheric patterns such as moisture surges and steering influences, have sustained higher frequencies than climatological baselines of roughly 1,200–1,300 per year. Remaining months could moderate totals if late-season conditions weaken, yet current observational trends and model guidance support the dominant 1250+ implied probability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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