Recent forecasts from sources including Météo-France and European models show a post-heatwave cooldown for Paris, with overnight lows on August 16 expected near 17–19°C amid partly cloudy skies and lighter winds. This follows daytime peaks of 33–38°C earlier in the week, as a shift in steering patterns allows cooler Atlantic air to moderate temperatures. Nighttime radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the urban heat island effect remain key variables that could nudge the daily minimum slightly higher or lower. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing context for why markets assign the highest implied probability (45.5%) to 18°C or below while still pricing meaningful chances around 19–20°C ahead of final model runs and observations.