Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate converge on a daytime high of 30–31°C in Warsaw for August 16 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk, supporting the market’s leading 30°C outcome at 40.5% implied probability. This reflects a temporary warm-air advection episode deviating above the long-term August climatological mean of 23–25°C, with ensemble guidance showing limited spread and low odds of exceeding 32°C or dropping below 28°C. Recent observational trends and short-range model runs have stabilized around this range, with traders weighting official agency consensus more heavily than earlier seasonal outlooks. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at Warsaw’s primary station tomorrow.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
30°C 41%
29°C 29%
31°C 20%
28°C 9%
НОВЕ
$11,094 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,094 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
9%
29°C
29%
30°C
41%
31°C
20%
32°C
5%
33°C or higher
1%
30°C 41%
29°C 29%
31°C 20%
28°C 9%
НОВЕ
$11,094 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,094 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$267 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$368 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$497 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$1,020 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$563 Обс.
2%
28°C
$904 Обс.
9%
29°C
$1,421 Обс.
29%
30°C
$1,345 Обс.
41%
31°C
$1,999 Обс.
20%
32°C
$2,107 Обс.
5%
33°C or higher
$602 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate converge on a daytime high of 30–31°C in Warsaw for August 16 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk, supporting the market’s leading 30°C outcome at 40.5% implied probability. This reflects a temporary warm-air advection episode deviating above the long-term August climatological mean of 23–25°C, with ensemble guidance showing limited spread and low odds of exceeding 32°C or dropping below 28°C. Recent observational trends and short-range model runs have stabilized around this range, with traders weighting official agency consensus more heavily than earlier seasonal outlooks. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at Warsaw’s primary station tomorrow.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,094Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate converge on a daytime high of 30–31°C in Warsaw for August 16 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk, supporting the market’s leading 30°C outcome at 40.5% implied probability. This reflects a temporary warm-air advection episode deviating above the long-term August climatological mean of 23–25°C, with ensemble guidance showing limited spread and low odds of exceeding 32°C or dropping below 28°C. Recent observational trends and short-range model runs have stabilized around this range, with traders weighting official agency consensus more heavily than earlier seasonal outlooks. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at Warsaw’s primary station tomorrow.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$11,094Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including the Met Office, BBC Weather, and timeanddate converge on a daytime high of 30–31°C in Warsaw for August 16 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk, supporting the market’s leading 30°C outcome at 40.5% implied probability. This reflects a temporary warm-air advection episode deviating above the long-term August climatological mean of 23–25°C, with ensemble guidance showing limited spread and low odds of exceeding 32°C or dropping below 28°C. Recent observational trends and short-range model runs have stabilized around this range, with traders weighting official agency consensus more heavily than earlier seasonal outlooks. Resolution hinges on the official maximum recorded at Warsaw’s primary station tomorrow.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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