**Trader sentiment heavily favors a 10°C high in Wellington on August 16, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of a cool winter day.** Multiple meteorological sources, including the UK Met Office and localized models, project a daytime maximum of 9–10°C with overnight lows near 7°C under cloudy conditions and possible drizzle or showers. Strong southerlies or polar air influences are expected to suppress temperatures below the seasonal average high of approximately 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the Wellington region overall, with no significant warming trend or subtropical airflow to push readings higher. Recent observations of chilly overnight minima and variable southerly flows align with these short-term model runs, limiting upside risk. The slim probability attached to 11°C accounts for minor forecast uncertainty or localized warming, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model guidance and MetService briefings ahead of the day will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 89%
11°C 12%
12°C 1.3%
4°C or below <1%
НОВЕ
$50,947 Обс.
НОВЕ
$50,947 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
89%
11°C
12%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 89%
11°C 12%
12°C 1.3%
4°C or below <1%
НОВЕ
$50,947 Обс.
НОВЕ
$50,947 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$763 Обс.
<1%
5°C
$907 Обс.
<1%
6°C
$1,049 Обс.
<1%
7°C
$3,612 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$4,657 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$25,727 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$6,692 Обс.
89%
11°C
$4,115 Обс.
12%
12°C
$2,306 Обс.
1%
13°C
$831 Обс.
<1%
14°C or higher
$287 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors a 10°C high in Wellington on August 16, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of a cool winter day.** Multiple meteorological sources, including the UK Met Office and localized models, project a daytime maximum of 9–10°C with overnight lows near 7°C under cloudy conditions and possible drizzle or showers. Strong southerlies or polar air influences are expected to suppress temperatures below the seasonal average high of approximately 12°C.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the Wellington region overall, with no significant warming trend or subtropical airflow to push readings higher. Recent observations of chilly overnight minima and variable southerly flows align with these short-term model runs, limiting upside risk. The slim probability attached to 11°C accounts for minor forecast uncertainty or localized warming, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model guidance and MetService briefings ahead of the day will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$50,947Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment heavily favors a 10°C high in Wellington on August 16, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of a cool winter day.** Multiple meteorological sources, including the UK Met Office and localized models, project a daytime maximum of 9–10°C with overnight lows near 7°C under cloudy conditions and possible drizzle or showers. Strong southerlies or polar air influences are expected to suppress temperatures below the seasonal average high of approximately 12°C.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the Wellington region overall, with no significant warming trend or subtropical airflow to push readings higher. Recent observations of chilly overnight minima and variable southerly flows align with these short-term model runs, limiting upside risk. The slim probability attached to 11°C accounts for minor forecast uncertainty or localized warming, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model guidance and MetService briefings ahead of the day will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$50,947Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment heavily favors a 10°C high in Wellington on August 16, 2026, reflecting consistent official forecasts of a cool winter day.** Multiple meteorological sources, including the UK Met Office and localized models, project a daytime maximum of 9–10°C with overnight lows near 7°C under cloudy conditions and possible drizzle or showers. Strong southerlies or polar air influences are expected to suppress temperatures below the seasonal average high of approximately 12°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates near-average temperatures for the Wellington region overall, with no significant warming trend or subtropical airflow to push readings higher. Recent observations of chilly overnight minima and variable southerly flows align with these short-term model runs, limiting upside risk. The slim probability attached to 11°C accounts for minor forecast uncertainty or localized warming, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the current atmospheric pattern. Updated model guidance and MetService briefings ahead of the day will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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