Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12% шанс
$139,387 Обс.
$139,387 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
12% шанс
$139,387 Обс.
$139,387 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$139,387Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Обсяг
$139,387Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, now forecast to become very strong by fall 2026 with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in the Niño-3.4 region, are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season, projecting just 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) through November, well below the 1991-2020 average of three. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. coastline remain exceptionally rare even in active years—only five have occurred since 1928—and the current low accumulated cyclone energy outlook plus early-season weakness further reduce odds. Traders’ 88% consensus on “No” aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines ahead of the September peak.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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