NASA’s May 2026 Artemis program revision has driven the 97% market-implied probability against a crewed lunar landing this year by shifting the next landing attempt to 2028 with Artemis IV. Persistent technical hurdles, including hydrogen leaks and propellant system issues that delayed Artemis II’s crewed flyby to April 2026, have compressed the schedule for developing and certifying the Human Landing System variant of SpaceX’s Starship. With only nine months remaining and no alternative public or private manifests demonstrating readiness for a full lunar descent, ascent, and safe return, traders see minimal scope for acceleration. While an unexpected private-sector breakthrough or accelerated international partnership could theoretically intervene, current development timelines and certification requirements make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.