NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to 2028 via Artemis IV after repurposing Artemis III as a 2027 low Earth orbit demonstration. Artemis II completed its successful crewed Orion flyby in April 2026 without any surface operations. The SpaceX Starship human landing system remains unready, with in-orbit refueling unproven and limited progress reported by oversight bodies. No other government or commercial program has demonstrated the necessary hardware, timelines, or regulatory approvals for a 2026 landing. With only months remaining in the year, these development gaps and schedule realities underpin the 99.2% market-implied odds against. Unexpected breakthroughs in private lander testing or international coordination could theoretically intervene but face steep technical and logistical barriers.