NOAA’s updated August forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season projects well below-normal activity, with only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November, reflecting El Niño influences, cooler sea-surface patterns in key development regions, and reduced atmospheric conditions favoring intensification. Through mid-August, the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, aligning with Colorado State University projections of below-average U.S. landfall odds for major systems. Category 4 landfalls require sustained winds of 130–156 mph and specific steering patterns that current models show little support for over the remaining season. Forecasters emphasize that peak September activity remains uncertain, yet the overall suppressed environment supports the market-implied 83.5% probability traders assign to no such U.S. landfall before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% шанс
$340,142 Обс.
$340,142 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
16% шанс
$340,142 Обс.
$340,142 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season projects well below-normal activity, with only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November, reflecting El Niño influences, cooler sea-surface patterns in key development regions, and reduced atmospheric conditions favoring intensification. Through mid-August, the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, aligning with Colorado State University projections of below-average U.S. landfall odds for major systems. Category 4 landfalls require sustained winds of 130–156 mph and specific steering patterns that current models show little support for over the remaining season. Forecasters emphasize that peak September activity remains uncertain, yet the overall suppressed environment supports the market-implied 83.5% probability traders assign to no such U.S. landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$340,142Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season projects well below-normal activity, with only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November, reflecting El Niño influences, cooler sea-surface patterns in key development regions, and reduced atmospheric conditions favoring intensification. Through mid-August, the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, aligning with Colorado State University projections of below-average U.S. landfall odds for major systems. Category 4 landfalls require sustained winds of 130–156 mph and specific steering patterns that current models show little support for over the remaining season. Forecasters emphasize that peak September activity remains uncertain, yet the overall suppressed environment supports the market-implied 83.5% probability traders assign to no such U.S. landfall before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Обсяг
$340,142Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August forecast for the 2026 Atlantic season projects well below-normal activity, with only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) expected through November, reflecting El Niño influences, cooler sea-surface patterns in key development regions, and reduced atmospheric conditions favoring intensification. Through mid-August, the basin has produced just three weak tropical storms and zero hurricanes, aligning with Colorado State University projections of below-average U.S. landfall odds for major systems. Category 4 landfalls require sustained winds of 130–156 mph and specific steering patterns that current models show little support for over the remaining season. Forecasters emphasize that peak September activity remains uncertain, yet the overall suppressed environment supports the market-implied 83.5% probability traders assign to no such U.S. landfall before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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