Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,669 positive pools detected through mid-September—nearly double last year’s pace—has positioned 20 to 34 neuroinvasive cases as the market’s leading outcome at 54% implied probability. Surveillance shows 18 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents so far in 2026, consistent with the recent five-year average of roughly 25 to 31 annually, though transmission typically peaks through October. Official NYC Health Department data note early and widespread mosquito detections across all boroughs since June, alongside national trends of higher activity, increasing the chance of additional reports before season end. Traders appear to weigh this against historical variability (16–46 cases in prior years) and effective mosquito control measures that can sharply reduce vector populations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
20 to 34 54%
35 to 49 27%
50 or more 8.5%
Fewer than 20 5.8%
$12,338 Обс.
$12,338 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
6%
20 to 34
54%
35 to 49
27%
50 or more
9%
20 to 34 54%
35 to 49 27%
50 or more 8.5%
Fewer than 20 5.8%
$12,338 Обс.
$12,338 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$3,969 Обс.
6%
20 to 34
$5,080 Обс.
54%
35 to 49
$2,722 Обс.
27%
50 or more
$566 Обс.
9%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,669 positive pools detected through mid-September—nearly double last year’s pace—has positioned 20 to 34 neuroinvasive cases as the market’s leading outcome at 54% implied probability. Surveillance shows 18 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents so far in 2026, consistent with the recent five-year average of roughly 25 to 31 annually, though transmission typically peaks through October. Official NYC Health Department data note early and widespread mosquito detections across all boroughs since June, alongside national trends of higher activity, increasing the chance of additional reports before season end. Traders appear to weigh this against historical variability (16–46 cases in prior years) and effective mosquito control measures that can sharply reduce vector populations.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,338Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,669 positive pools detected through mid-September—nearly double last year’s pace—has positioned 20 to 34 neuroinvasive cases as the market’s leading outcome at 54% implied probability. Surveillance shows 18 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents so far in 2026, consistent with the recent five-year average of roughly 25 to 31 annually, though transmission typically peaks through October. Official NYC Health Department data note early and widespread mosquito detections across all boroughs since June, alongside national trends of higher activity, increasing the chance of additional reports before season end. Traders appear to weigh this against historical variability (16–46 cases in prior years) and effective mosquito control measures that can sharply reduce vector populations.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Обсяг
$12,338Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City mosquitoes this season, with 1,669 positive pools detected through mid-September—nearly double last year’s pace—has positioned 20 to 34 neuroinvasive cases as the market’s leading outcome at 54% implied probability. Surveillance shows 18 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among residents so far in 2026, consistent with the recent five-year average of roughly 25 to 31 annually, though transmission typically peaks through October. Official NYC Health Department data note early and widespread mosquito detections across all boroughs since June, alongside national trends of higher activity, increasing the chance of additional reports before season end. Traders appear to weigh this against historical variability (16–46 cases in prior years) and effective mosquito control measures that can sharply reduce vector populations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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