Prolonged European drought and repeated summer heatwaves have driven the Rhine to record-low gauges at chokepoints such as Kaub, with depths recently falling below 25 cm—well under the roughly 78 cm threshold for normal commercial navigation. Catchment rainfall deficits and reduced Alpine snowmelt have left little immediate prospect for rapid rebound, consistent with federal hydrology outlooks showing restricted shipping capacity persisting through much of the autumn. Traders therefore assign the highest probability (42.5%) to levels remaining below normal past November 1, while shorter windows in September and October reflect only modest odds of sufficient precipitation arriving in time to restore viable depths. Economic pressure on freight and industry has prompted official monitoring but has not altered the underlying meteorological outlook.