Recent ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS models, alongside Russia's Hydrometeorological Center runs, positions Moscow's August 15 maximum near 19–21°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with late-summer climatology where daytime highs typically decline from mid-month averages near 22°C amid increasing Atlantic air intrusions. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21°C reflects limited spread in short-range model solutions, with modest uncertainty tied to exact timing of cloud breaks or precipitation that could trim or boost peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours and official station verification will remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 18%
22°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
4%
16°C
5%
17°C
2%
18°C
10%
19°C
26%
20°C
45%
21°C
18%
22°C
11%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 45%
19°C 26%
21°C 18%
22°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$31 Обс.
4%
16°C
$19 Обс.
5%
17°C
$402 Обс.
2%
18°C
$196 Обс.
10%
19°C
$320 Обс.
26%
20°C
$269 Обс.
45%
21°C
$237 Обс.
18%
22°C
$235 Обс.
11%
23°C
$5 Обс.
5%
24°C
$12 Обс.
5%
25°C or higher
$12 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS models, alongside Russia's Hydrometeorological Center runs, positions Moscow's August 15 maximum near 19–21°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with late-summer climatology where daytime highs typically decline from mid-month averages near 22°C amid increasing Atlantic air intrusions. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21°C reflects limited spread in short-range model solutions, with modest uncertainty tied to exact timing of cloud breaks or precipitation that could trim or boost peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours and official station verification will remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,738Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS models, alongside Russia's Hydrometeorological Center runs, positions Moscow's August 15 maximum near 19–21°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with late-summer climatology where daytime highs typically decline from mid-month averages near 22°C amid increasing Atlantic air intrusions. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21°C reflects limited spread in short-range model solutions, with modest uncertainty tied to exact timing of cloud breaks or precipitation that could trim or boost peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours and official station verification will remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,738Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and GFS models, alongside Russia's Hydrometeorological Center runs, positions Moscow's August 15 maximum near 19–21°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible scattered showers. This aligns with late-summer climatology where daytime highs typically decline from mid-month averages near 22°C amid increasing Atlantic air intrusions. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 19–21°C reflects limited spread in short-range model solutions, with modest uncertainty tied to exact timing of cloud breaks or precipitation that could trim or boost peak readings by 1–2°C. Updated model cycles through the next 48 hours and official station verification will remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання