Polymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.3%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.8%
Інше 1.4%
$1,068,028 Обс.
$1,068,028 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
2%
Інше
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.3%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.8%
Інше 1.4%
$1,068,028 Обс.
$1,068,028 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$55,239 Обс.
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$27,054 Обс.
2%
Інше
$240,394 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,068,028Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$1,068,028Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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