The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges related to Federal Reserve renovation testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability that he will not face incarceration before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the absence of active federal or state proceedings against the Fed Chair, whose role centers on monetary policy decisions including the federal funds rate and Treasury yield influences, alongside robust institutional protections and due process requirements that make jailing a central banker exceptionally rare. While historical precedent shows no comparable outcomes for Fed leadership, tail-risk scenarios such as unexpected new allegations or extraordinary political actions could theoretically shift odds, though current data releases and regulatory filings show no supporting signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
2% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges related to Federal Reserve renovation testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability that he will not face incarceration before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the absence of active federal or state proceedings against the Fed Chair, whose role centers on monetary policy decisions including the federal funds rate and Treasury yield influences, alongside robust institutional protections and due process requirements that make jailing a central banker exceptionally rare. While historical precedent shows no comparable outcomes for Fed leadership, tail-risk scenarios such as unexpected new allegations or extraordinary political actions could theoretically shift odds, though current data releases and regulatory filings show no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,593Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges related to Federal Reserve renovation testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability that he will not face incarceration before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the absence of active federal or state proceedings against the Fed Chair, whose role centers on monetary policy decisions including the federal funds rate and Treasury yield influences, alongside robust institutional protections and due process requirements that make jailing a central banker exceptionally rare. While historical precedent shows no comparable outcomes for Fed leadership, tail-risk scenarios such as unexpected new allegations or extraordinary political actions could theoretically shift odds, though current data releases and regulatory filings show no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$5,593Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, without charges related to Federal Reserve renovation testimony, underpins the 98% market-implied probability that he will not face incarceration before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the absence of active federal or state proceedings against the Fed Chair, whose role centers on monetary policy decisions including the federal funds rate and Treasury yield influences, alongside robust institutional protections and due process requirements that make jailing a central banker exceptionally rare. While historical precedent shows no comparable outcomes for Fed leadership, tail-risk scenarios such as unexpected new allegations or extraordinary political actions could theoretically shift odds, though current data releases and regulatory filings show no supporting signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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