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Економ·Тарифи Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

icon for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Обс.

Polymarket

5.25%

$0 Обс.

50%

5.10%

$0 Обс.

50%

5.00%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.95%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.90%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.85%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.80%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.75%

$0 Обс.

50%

4.70%

$0 Обс.

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Middle East tensions and surging oil prices have lifted 5-year Treasury yields to approximately 4.54% as of early September 2026, up sharply from earlier in the year amid persistent inflation concerns. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revisions to the 2026 funds-rate path have reinforced expectations for potential rate hikes, with futures markets pricing roughly 30-65 basis points of tightening by year-end depending on incoming data. Resilient growth, firm labor markets, and elevated breakeven inflation measures continue to support higher term premia, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and payroll releases represent key near-term catalysts that could extend the recent yield climb.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Middle East tensions and surging oil prices have lifted 5-year Treasury yields to approximately 4.54% as of early September 2026, up sharply from earlier in the year amid persistent inflation concerns. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revisions to the 2026 funds-rate path have reinforced expectations for potential rate hikes, with futures markets pricing roughly 30-65 basis points of tightening by year-end depending on incoming data. Resilient growth, firm labor markets, and elevated breakeven inflation measures continue to support higher term premia, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and payroll releases represent key near-term catalysts that could extend the recent yield climb.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 9 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «5.25%» з 50%, далі «5.10%» з 50%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Sep 2, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?», перегляньте 9 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?» — «5.25%» з 50%. Наступний — «5.10%» з 50%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

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