Recent readings for Japan's core CPI, excluding fresh food, have hovered near or below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, with July 2026 national figures at 1.8% and Tokyo data accelerating modestly to 1.9% year-over-year amid easing energy subsidies. The BoJ's January 2026 projections peg fiscal-year core inflation at 1.9%, reflecting gradual wage pass-through offset by base effects and policy support. These developments have produced closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% brackets, as traders weigh persistent underlying pressures against subdued headline trends. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, further BoJ communications on monetary policy normalization, and any adjustments to energy cost measures that could influence the annual outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено≤1.9% 49.3%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 3.1%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$38,554 Обс.
$38,554 Обс.
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
49%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
3%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 49.3%
2.0-2.4% 49%
3.0-3.4% 3.1%
2.5-2.9% 1.4%
$38,554 Обс.
$38,554 Обс.
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
49%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
3%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings for Japan's core CPI, excluding fresh food, have hovered near or below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, with July 2026 national figures at 1.8% and Tokyo data accelerating modestly to 1.9% year-over-year amid easing energy subsidies. The BoJ's January 2026 projections peg fiscal-year core inflation at 1.9%, reflecting gradual wage pass-through offset by base effects and policy support. These developments have produced closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% brackets, as traders weigh persistent underlying pressures against subdued headline trends. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI releases, further BoJ communications on monetary policy normalization, and any adjustments to energy cost measures that could influence the annual outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено


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