Recent softening in Japan's core-core CPI readings, which dipped to 1.7% YoY in June 2026 from prior levels near 2.4%, has kept the closely matched market-implied odds between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets nearly even. This reflects persistent energy subsidies capping headline pressures, a weaker yen boosting import costs, and uneven pass-through of wage gains to services prices. Bank of Japan projections for fiscal 2026 core-core inflation around 2.2-2.5% underscore upside risks from sustained domestic demand and potential oil price spikes, while latest data revisions and Tokyo leading indicators point to downside momentum. Traders are weighing these dynamics ahead of the next BoJ policy meeting and July CPI release, where further yen moves or subsidy adjustments could shift the balance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 47%
2.5-2.9% 1.6%
4.0%+ 1.5%
$36,171 Обс.
$36,171 Обс.
≤1.9%
47%
2.0-2.4%
54%
2.5-2.9%
2%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
2%
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 47%
2.5-2.9% 1.6%
4.0%+ 1.5%
$36,171 Обс.
$36,171 Обс.
≤1.9%
47%
2.0-2.4%
54%
2.5-2.9%
2%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
2%
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in Japan's core-core CPI readings, which dipped to 1.7% YoY in June 2026 from prior levels near 2.4%, has kept the closely matched market-implied odds between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% buckets nearly even. This reflects persistent energy subsidies capping headline pressures, a weaker yen boosting import costs, and uneven pass-through of wage gains to services prices. Bank of Japan projections for fiscal 2026 core-core inflation around 2.2-2.5% underscore upside risks from sustained domestic demand and potential oil price spikes, while latest data revisions and Tokyo leading indicators point to downside momentum. Traders are weighing these dynamics ahead of the next BoJ policy meeting and July CPI release, where further yen moves or subsidy adjustments could shift the balance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено


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