Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Обс.
$687,464 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,464 Обс.
$687,464 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,944 Обс.
3%
No change
$136,748 Обс.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Обс.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Обс.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$687,464Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$687,464Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation steady at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly increase, driven partly by higher energy prices, has reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. A resilient labor market, evidenced by solid job gains and low unemployment near 4.1%, has further supported the case for rate hikes amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and revised forecasts from banks like UBS projecting 25-basis-point increases at both the September and December FOMC meetings. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, market-implied odds for a December hike reflect aggregated sentiment that persistent price pressures and economic strength outweigh cooling risks, though incoming data releases before year-end could still shift the path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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