Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied odds of another 2026 rate hike. Following the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point increase to the 3.75–4.00% range, the updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional hike by year-end, lifting the median federal funds rate endpoint to 4.1%. August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and projected 2026 PCE inflation of 3.7% underscore limited progress, while resilient growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate give policymakers room to tighten further. Key near-term catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings plus the September CPI release on October 14. Traders view these factors as supporting a higher probability of additional policy firming before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено84% шанс
НОВЕ
$41,029 Обс.
НОВЕ
$41,029 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
84% шанс
НОВЕ
$41,029 Обс.
НОВЕ
$41,029 Обс.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied odds of another 2026 rate hike. Following the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point increase to the 3.75–4.00% range, the updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional hike by year-end, lifting the median federal funds rate endpoint to 4.1%. August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and projected 2026 PCE inflation of 3.7% underscore limited progress, while resilient growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate give policymakers room to tighten further. Key near-term catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings plus the September CPI release on October 14. Traders view these factors as supporting a higher probability of additional policy firming before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$41,029Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied odds of another 2026 rate hike. Following the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point increase to the 3.75–4.00% range, the updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional hike by year-end, lifting the median federal funds rate endpoint to 4.1%. August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and projected 2026 PCE inflation of 3.7% underscore limited progress, while resilient growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate give policymakers room to tighten further. Key near-term catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings plus the September CPI release on October 14. Traders view these factors as supporting a higher probability of additional policy firming before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$41,029Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver behind the 83.5% market-implied odds of another 2026 rate hike. Following the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point increase to the 3.75–4.00% range, the updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants projecting at least one additional hike by year-end, lifting the median federal funds rate endpoint to 4.1%. August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and projected 2026 PCE inflation of 3.7% underscore limited progress, while resilient growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate give policymakers room to tighten further. Key near-term catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings plus the September CPI release on October 14. Traders view these factors as supporting a higher probability of additional policy firming before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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