The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent, combined with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one additional increase this year, has driven the market-implied 54.5 percent probability of another 25 basis point hike at the October 27–28 meeting. Persistent inflation, with August CPI rising 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.4 percent year-over-year alongside core readings near 2.4 percent, alongside a resilient labor market featuring 4.1 percent unemployment and solid August payroll gains, supports the hawkish tilt and slight edge over the 44.5 percent no-change outcome. Traders are closely watching the October 14 CPI release and subsequent employment data for any shift in the rate path ahead of the next projections in December.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMarket pricing shifts sharply toward 25 bps increase ahead of October FOMC meeting
25 bps increase surges to 56%18%
Following the September FOMC meeting and updated projections, market prices for a 25 basis point increase in October surged from 38% to 56%, while the no change option dropped from 63% to 44%, reflecting growing consensus on a moderate rate hike at the October meeting.



Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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