Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
50% шанс
$7,446,286 Обс.
$7,446,286 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Так
50% шанс
$7,446,286 Обс.
$7,446,286 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,446,286Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$7,446,286Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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