Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range held at the April 29 meeting amid balanced risks. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—elevating hike odds from earlier lows, yet unemployment held steady at 4.3% with modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains signaling no overheating. The March dot plot projected funds toward low-3% by 2027, implying cuts over hikes, while 10-year Treasury yields near 4.46% indicate priced-in caution. Key catalysts ahead include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data, with persistent disinflation needed to avert policy reversal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$1,097,700 Обс.
$1,097,700 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
Так
$1,097,700 Обс.
$1,097,700 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range held at the April 29 meeting amid balanced risks. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—elevating hike odds from earlier lows, yet unemployment held steady at 4.3% with modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains signaling no overheating. The March dot plot projected funds toward low-3% by 2027, implying cuts over hikes, while 10-year Treasury yields near 4.46% indicate priced-in caution. Key catalysts ahead include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data, with persistent disinflation needed to avert policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,097,700Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range held at the April 29 meeting amid balanced risks. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—elevating hike odds from earlier lows, yet unemployment held steady at 4.3% with modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains signaling no overheating. The March dot plot projected funds toward low-3% by 2027, implying cuts over hikes, while 10-year Treasury yields near 4.46% indicate priced-in caution. Key catalysts ahead include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data, with persistent disinflation needed to avert policy reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,097,700Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range held at the April 29 meeting amid balanced risks. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—elevating hike odds from earlier lows, yet unemployment held steady at 4.3% with modest 115,000 nonfarm payroll gains signaling no overheating. The March dot plot projected funds toward low-3% by 2027, implying cuts over hikes, while 10-year Treasury yields near 4.46% indicate priced-in caution. Key catalysts ahead include June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI data, with persistent disinflation needed to avert policy reversal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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