The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, backed by a 9–3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, has anchored trader expectations for an extended pause amid mixed inflation signals. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent, driven by softer energy prices, yet core measures remain above the 2 percent target and recent oil-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions has kept hawkish pressure visible in fed-funds futures. This dynamic favors the dominant “Other” outcome at 56.5 percent, which encompasses potential rate increases at the September or October meetings, while the 33 percent probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects baseline forecasts that the Committee will wait for additional data before shifting policy. Market-implied odds continue to price in roughly 30 basis points of tightening by year-end, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and forthcoming CPI releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOther 57%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$662,859 Обс.
$662,859 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
57%
Other 57%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$662,859 Обс.
$662,859 Обс.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$223,106 Обс.
33%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$50,992 Обс.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,868 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,402 Обс.
<1%
Other
$290,004 Обс.
57%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, backed by a 9–3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, has anchored trader expectations for an extended pause amid mixed inflation signals. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent, driven by softer energy prices, yet core measures remain above the 2 percent target and recent oil-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions has kept hawkish pressure visible in fed-funds futures. This dynamic favors the dominant “Other” outcome at 56.5 percent, which encompasses potential rate increases at the September or October meetings, while the 33 percent probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects baseline forecasts that the Committee will wait for additional data before shifting policy. Market-implied odds continue to price in roughly 30 basis points of tightening by year-end, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and forthcoming CPI releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$662,859Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, backed by a 9–3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, has anchored trader expectations for an extended pause amid mixed inflation signals. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent, driven by softer energy prices, yet core measures remain above the 2 percent target and recent oil-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions has kept hawkish pressure visible in fed-funds futures. This dynamic favors the dominant “Other” outcome at 56.5 percent, which encompasses potential rate increases at the September or October meetings, while the 33 percent probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects baseline forecasts that the Committee will wait for additional data before shifting policy. Market-implied odds continue to price in roughly 30 basis points of tightening by year-end, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and forthcoming CPI releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$662,859Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The July 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, backed by a 9–3 vote with three dissents favoring a hike, has anchored trader expectations for an extended pause amid mixed inflation signals. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent, driven by softer energy prices, yet core measures remain above the 2 percent target and recent oil-price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions has kept hawkish pressure visible in fed-funds futures. This dynamic favors the dominant “Other” outcome at 56.5 percent, which encompasses potential rate increases at the September or October meetings, while the 33 percent probability on Pause–Pause–Pause reflects baseline forecasts that the Committee will wait for additional data before shifting policy. Market-implied odds continue to price in roughly 30 basis points of tightening by year-end, underscoring uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and forthcoming CPI releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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