Recent U.S. labor market data, with unemployment easing to 4.1% in July 2026 alongside resilient employment levels below the 5.0% threshold, and headline CPI moderating to 3.4% year-over-year, underpin the 60% market-implied probability for a soft landing by year-end. Persistent but declining price pressures, influenced by easing energy components after earlier supply shocks, keep overheating odds at 37.5% as the Fed holds the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while monitoring core inflation near 2.5%. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of stagflation or slack scenarios, given the labor market's stability and absence of sharp demand weakness. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release, and ongoing employment reports that could shift rate path expectations and year-end readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSoft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 3.3%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$69,848 Обс.
$69,848 Обс.
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
3%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 3.3%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$69,848 Обс.
$69,848 Обс.
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$32,683 Обс.
60%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24,156 Обс.
38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,561 Обс.
3%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,448 Обс.
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent U.S. labor market data, with unemployment easing to 4.1% in July 2026 alongside resilient employment levels below the 5.0% threshold, and headline CPI moderating to 3.4% year-over-year, underpin the 60% market-implied probability for a soft landing by year-end. Persistent but declining price pressures, influenced by easing energy components after earlier supply shocks, keep overheating odds at 37.5% as the Fed holds the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while monitoring core inflation near 2.5%. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of stagflation or slack scenarios, given the labor market's stability and absence of sharp demand weakness. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release, and ongoing employment reports that could shift rate path expectations and year-end readings.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$69,848Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent U.S. labor market data, with unemployment easing to 4.1% in July 2026 alongside resilient employment levels below the 5.0% threshold, and headline CPI moderating to 3.4% year-over-year, underpin the 60% market-implied probability for a soft landing by year-end. Persistent but declining price pressures, influenced by easing energy components after earlier supply shocks, keep overheating odds at 37.5% as the Fed holds the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while monitoring core inflation near 2.5%. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of stagflation or slack scenarios, given the labor market's stability and absence of sharp demand weakness. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release, and ongoing employment reports that could shift rate path expectations and year-end readings.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Обсяг
$69,848Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market data, with unemployment easing to 4.1% in July 2026 alongside resilient employment levels below the 5.0% threshold, and headline CPI moderating to 3.4% year-over-year, underpin the 60% market-implied probability for a soft landing by year-end. Persistent but declining price pressures, influenced by easing energy components after earlier supply shocks, keep overheating odds at 37.5% as the Fed holds the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while monitoring core inflation near 2.5%. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of stagflation or slack scenarios, given the labor market's stability and absence of sharp demand weakness. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI release, and ongoing employment reports that could shift rate path expectations and year-end readings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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