Recent discussions within the Trump administration have floated proposals to index capital gains for inflation or expand exemptions on primary home sales, with related bills introduced in Congress by Republican lawmakers. These ideas remain at the exploratory or committee stage ahead of the midterms, with no enacted legislation altering the longstanding 0/15/20% long-term federal rates. The tight remaining timeline in 2026, competing legislative priorities, and procedural requirements for tax changes have limited momentum for a broad reduction. Trader consensus at 85.5% for no cut by year-end reflects the gap between policy signals and enacted outcomes, consistent with historical patterns where major rate reductions require sustained congressional majorities and aligned priorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено19% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
19% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent discussions within the Trump administration have floated proposals to index capital gains for inflation or expand exemptions on primary home sales, with related bills introduced in Congress by Republican lawmakers. These ideas remain at the exploratory or committee stage ahead of the midterms, with no enacted legislation altering the longstanding 0/15/20% long-term federal rates. The tight remaining timeline in 2026, competing legislative priorities, and procedural requirements for tax changes have limited momentum for a broad reduction. Trader consensus at 85.5% for no cut by year-end reflects the gap between policy signals and enacted outcomes, consistent with historical patterns where major rate reductions require sustained congressional majorities and aligned priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Обсяг
$95Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent discussions within the Trump administration have floated proposals to index capital gains for inflation or expand exemptions on primary home sales, with related bills introduced in Congress by Republican lawmakers. These ideas remain at the exploratory or committee stage ahead of the midterms, with no enacted legislation altering the longstanding 0/15/20% long-term federal rates. The tight remaining timeline in 2026, competing legislative priorities, and procedural requirements for tax changes have limited momentum for a broad reduction. Trader consensus at 85.5% for no cut by year-end reflects the gap between policy signals and enacted outcomes, consistent with historical patterns where major rate reductions require sustained congressional majorities and aligned priorities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$95Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent discussions within the Trump administration have floated proposals to index capital gains for inflation or expand exemptions on primary home sales, with related bills introduced in Congress by Republican lawmakers. These ideas remain at the exploratory or committee stage ahead of the midterms, with no enacted legislation altering the longstanding 0/15/20% long-term federal rates. The tight remaining timeline in 2026, competing legislative priorities, and procedural requirements for tax changes have limited momentum for a broad reduction. Trader consensus at 85.5% for no cut by year-end reflects the gap between policy signals and enacted outcomes, consistent with historical patterns where major rate reductions require sustained congressional majorities and aligned priorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання