Trump's major 2025 tax legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill, permanently extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rates and pass-through deductions without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate from 20%. Recent administration discussions have centered on narrower measures such as inflation indexing for basis calculations and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, yet related bills remain stalled in committee with no floor action. Traders assign an 86% probability to no rate cut before 2027 due to these legislative priorities, fiscal constraints in reconciliation, and the absence of scheduled votes or executive actions targeting the headline rate by the deadline. Midterm dynamics and competing policy demands further limit near-term momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено14% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
14% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's major 2025 tax legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill, permanently extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rates and pass-through deductions without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate from 20%. Recent administration discussions have centered on narrower measures such as inflation indexing for basis calculations and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, yet related bills remain stalled in committee with no floor action. Traders assign an 86% probability to no rate cut before 2027 due to these legislative priorities, fiscal constraints in reconciliation, and the absence of scheduled votes or executive actions targeting the headline rate by the deadline. Midterm dynamics and competing policy demands further limit near-term momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,141Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's major 2025 tax legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill, permanently extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rates and pass-through deductions without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate from 20%. Recent administration discussions have centered on narrower measures such as inflation indexing for basis calculations and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, yet related bills remain stalled in committee with no floor action. Traders assign an 86% probability to no rate cut before 2027 due to these legislative priorities, fiscal constraints in reconciliation, and the absence of scheduled votes or executive actions targeting the headline rate by the deadline. Midterm dynamics and competing policy demands further limit near-term momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$2,141Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's major 2025 tax legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill, permanently extended 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act individual rates and pass-through deductions without reducing the top long-term capital gains rate from 20%. Recent administration discussions have centered on narrower measures such as inflation indexing for basis calculations and expanded exclusions for primary home sales, yet related bills remain stalled in committee with no floor action. Traders assign an 86% probability to no rate cut before 2027 due to these legislative priorities, fiscal constraints in reconciliation, and the absence of scheduled votes or executive actions targeting the headline rate by the deadline. Midterm dynamics and competing policy demands further limit near-term momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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