Traders assign near-certain probability against Donald Trump leaving the presidency by May 31 because no impeachment proceedings have advanced in the House, no cabinet action has invoked the 25th Amendment, and routine executive and legislative functions continue without disruption. The short remaining timeframe offers no realistic path for the sustained bipartisan majorities or institutional steps required for removal under constitutional procedures. Historical precedent for mid-term departures shows these processes demand months of debate and votes rather than sudden shifts. Only an unforeseen health crisis or rapid escalation of unconfirmed allegations could theoretically intervene before the deadline, though current conditions provide no indication of such developments materializing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$1,627,945 Обс.
$1,627,945 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$1,627,945 Обс.
$1,627,945 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign near-certain probability against Donald Trump leaving the presidency by May 31 because no impeachment proceedings have advanced in the House, no cabinet action has invoked the 25th Amendment, and routine executive and legislative functions continue without disruption. The short remaining timeframe offers no realistic path for the sustained bipartisan majorities or institutional steps required for removal under constitutional procedures. Historical precedent for mid-term departures shows these processes demand months of debate and votes rather than sudden shifts. Only an unforeseen health crisis or rapid escalation of unconfirmed allegations could theoretically intervene before the deadline, though current conditions provide no indication of such developments materializing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,627,945Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign near-certain probability against Donald Trump leaving the presidency by May 31 because no impeachment proceedings have advanced in the House, no cabinet action has invoked the 25th Amendment, and routine executive and legislative functions continue without disruption. The short remaining timeframe offers no realistic path for the sustained bipartisan majorities or institutional steps required for removal under constitutional procedures. Historical precedent for mid-term departures shows these processes demand months of debate and votes rather than sudden shifts. Only an unforeseen health crisis or rapid escalation of unconfirmed allegations could theoretically intervene before the deadline, though current conditions provide no indication of such developments materializing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,627,945Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign near-certain probability against Donald Trump leaving the presidency by May 31 because no impeachment proceedings have advanced in the House, no cabinet action has invoked the 25th Amendment, and routine executive and legislative functions continue without disruption. The short remaining timeframe offers no realistic path for the sustained bipartisan majorities or institutional steps required for removal under constitutional procedures. Historical precedent for mid-term departures shows these processes demand months of debate and votes rather than sudden shifts. Only an unforeseen health crisis or rapid escalation of unconfirmed allegations could theoretically intervene before the deadline, though current conditions provide no indication of such developments materializing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання