Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, pricing an 82.5% implied probability amid surging Eurozone inflation reaching 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by a 10.9% energy price spike tied to the Iran war escalation. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, but President Lagarde highlighted internal debates on hikes and readiness to act absent positive geopolitical developments, bolstering hike expectations despite Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and unemployment at a firm 6.2%. No-change odds at 17.8% reflect slim hopes for May CPI relief (flash due May 29); larger moves remain negligible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 83%
No change 17.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,418 Обс.
$244,418 Обс.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
18%
25 bps Increase
83%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 83%
No change 17.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,418 Обс.
$244,418 Обс.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$47,296 Обс.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$41,126 Обс.
<1%
No change
$49,524 Обс.
18%
25 bps Increase
$59,422 Обс.
83%
50+ bps increase
$47,050 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, pricing an 82.5% implied probability amid surging Eurozone inflation reaching 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by a 10.9% energy price spike tied to the Iran war escalation. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, but President Lagarde highlighted internal debates on hikes and readiness to act absent positive geopolitical developments, bolstering hike expectations despite Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and unemployment at a firm 6.2%. No-change odds at 17.8% reflect slim hopes for May CPI relief (flash due May 29); larger moves remain negligible.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$244,418Дата завершення
Jun 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, pricing an 82.5% implied probability amid surging Eurozone inflation reaching 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by a 10.9% energy price spike tied to the Iran war escalation. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, but President Lagarde highlighted internal debates on hikes and readiness to act absent positive geopolitical developments, bolstering hike expectations despite Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and unemployment at a firm 6.2%. No-change odds at 17.8% reflect slim hopes for May CPI relief (flash due May 29); larger moves remain negligible.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Обсяг
$244,418Дата завершення
Jun 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting, pricing an 82.5% implied probability amid surging Eurozone inflation reaching 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by a 10.9% energy price spike tied to the Iran war escalation. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, but President Lagarde highlighted internal debates on hikes and readiness to act absent positive geopolitical developments, bolstering hike expectations despite Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1% and unemployment at a firm 6.2%. No-change odds at 17.8% reflect slim hopes for May CPI relief (flash due May 29); larger moves remain negligible.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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