Traders assign an 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish tilt following its April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. Recent communications, including the May 12 summary of opinions, highlighted upside risks to inflation from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar, supporting normalization after upgraded fiscal 2026 core CPI forecasts. Economists in the latest Reuters poll largely anticipate the move to 1.00%, though softer growth projections and geopolitical uncertainty keep no-change odds at 19.5%. Markets will monitor May inflation prints and any further interventions for shifts ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено25 bps increase 79.8%
No change 20%
50+ bps increase 1.2%
Decrease rates <1%
$114,992 Обс.
$114,992 Обс.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
1%
No change
20%
25 bps increase
80%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 79.8%
No change 20%
50+ bps increase 1.2%
Decrease rates <1%
$114,992 Обс.
$114,992 Обс.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$34,145 Обс.
1%
No change
$28,989 Обс.
20%
25 bps increase
$27,491 Обс.
80%
50+ bps increase
$24,367 Обс.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish tilt following its April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. Recent communications, including the May 12 summary of opinions, highlighted upside risks to inflation from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar, supporting normalization after upgraded fiscal 2026 core CPI forecasts. Economists in the latest Reuters poll largely anticipate the move to 1.00%, though softer growth projections and geopolitical uncertainty keep no-change odds at 19.5%. Markets will monitor May inflation prints and any further interventions for shifts ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$114,992Дата завершення
Jun 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign an 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish tilt following its April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. Recent communications, including the May 12 summary of opinions, highlighted upside risks to inflation from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar, supporting normalization after upgraded fiscal 2026 core CPI forecasts. Economists in the latest Reuters poll largely anticipate the move to 1.00%, though softer growth projections and geopolitical uncertainty keep no-change odds at 19.5%. Markets will monitor May inflation prints and any further interventions for shifts ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$114,992Дата завершення
Jun 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 79.8% implied probability to a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s hawkish tilt following its April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on a 6-3 vote with three members dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. Recent communications, including the May 12 summary of opinions, highlighted upside risks to inflation from Middle East energy shocks and persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar, supporting normalization after upgraded fiscal 2026 core CPI forecasts. Economists in the latest Reuters poll largely anticipate the move to 1.00%, though softer growth projections and geopolitical uncertainty keep no-change odds at 19.5%. Markets will monitor May inflation prints and any further interventions for shifts ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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