Traders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.2%
1.2%+ 4.2%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
2%
0.3–0.5%
53%
0.6–0.8%
32%
0.9–1.1%
33%
1.2%+
4%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.2%
1.2%+ 4.2%
0.0–0.2% 1.7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,057 Обс.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$650 Обс.
4%
0.0–0.2%
$1,000 Обс.
2%
0.3–0.5%
$797 Обс.
53%
0.6–0.8%
$447 Обс.
32%
0.9–1.1%
$683 Обс.
33%
1.2%+
$2,843 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Ринок відкрито: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,477Дата завершення
May 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Обсяг
$7,477Дата завершення
May 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing the 0.3–0.5% quarter-over-quarter band as the most likely outcome for Japan’s preliminary Q1 2026 real GDP, reflecting consensus economist forecasts of 0.4–0.5% growth that would mark a second straight quarter of expansion. Firm export recovery, supported by semiconductor demand and easing tariff effects, alongside resilient private consumption and capital expenditure, underpin the moderate positive reading expected from the Cabinet Office release on May 19. Market-implied odds also assign meaningful probability to 0.6–1.1% ranges, consistent with historical volatility in Japan’s GDP prints and potential upside from public investment. The data will provide the first clear read on whether Middle East-related energy pressures have begun to weigh on domestic demand.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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