Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest among modest Q2 2026 US GDP growth bins, with 2.0–2.5% leading at 23.5% implied probability amid resilient yet decelerating economic signals. Q1 real GDP expanded 2.0% annualized—below consensus 2.3% expectations—driven by investment gains offsetting consumer spending moderation, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate released April 30. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000, exceeding forecasts but down from March's 185,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling labor market stabilization without acceleration. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast has climbed to 3.7%, but traders discount its early-quarter volatility. Key differentiators include May CPI data due this week, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing surveys, which could sway the path toward sub-2% slowdown or 3%+ upside if inflation eases and spending holds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 17%
3.0–3.5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1.5–2.0%
22%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 21%
1.5–2.0% 17%
3.0–3.5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$576 Обс.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$342 Обс.
10%
1.5–2.0%
$209 Обс.
22%
2.0–2.5%
$526 Обс.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$410 Обс.
21%
3.0–3.5%
$655 Обс.
16%
≥3.5%
$392 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest among modest Q2 2026 US GDP growth bins, with 2.0–2.5% leading at 23.5% implied probability amid resilient yet decelerating economic signals. Q1 real GDP expanded 2.0% annualized—below consensus 2.3% expectations—driven by investment gains offsetting consumer spending moderation, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate released April 30. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000, exceeding forecasts but down from March's 185,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling labor market stabilization without acceleration. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast has climbed to 3.7%, but traders discount its early-quarter volatility. Key differentiators include May CPI data due this week, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing surveys, which could sway the path toward sub-2% slowdown or 3%+ upside if inflation eases and spending holds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,111Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest among modest Q2 2026 US GDP growth bins, with 2.0–2.5% leading at 23.5% implied probability amid resilient yet decelerating economic signals. Q1 real GDP expanded 2.0% annualized—below consensus 2.3% expectations—driven by investment gains offsetting consumer spending moderation, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate released April 30. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000, exceeding forecasts but down from March's 185,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling labor market stabilization without acceleration. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast has climbed to 3.7%, but traders discount its early-quarter volatility. Key differentiators include May CPI data due this week, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing surveys, which could sway the path toward sub-2% slowdown or 3%+ upside if inflation eases and spending holds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Обсяг
$3,111Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest among modest Q2 2026 US GDP growth bins, with 2.0–2.5% leading at 23.5% implied probability amid resilient yet decelerating economic signals. Q1 real GDP expanded 2.0% annualized—below consensus 2.3% expectations—driven by investment gains offsetting consumer spending moderation, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate released April 30. April nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000, exceeding forecasts but down from March's 185,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling labor market stabilization without acceleration. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast has climbed to 3.7%, but traders discount its early-quarter volatility. Key differentiators include May CPI data due this week, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing surveys, which could sway the path toward sub-2% slowdown or 3%+ upside if inflation eases and spending holds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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