Rising euro area inflation, now averaging 2.6–2.7 percent for 2026 according to revised ECB staff projections, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one policy tightening this year. Energy price spikes tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation above the 2 percent target in April data, prompting the Governing Council to signal a data-dependent approach at its late-April meeting while leaving the deposit facility rate at 2 percent. Hawkish remarks from several council members have reinforced views that a June or September adjustment remains likely, aligning market pricing with two quarter-point moves. Weak growth and anchored longer-term expectations still leave room for flexibility, yet the persistent upside risks to inflation continue to underpin the strong consensus for a 2026 hike.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$114,268 Обс.
$114,268 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$114,268 Обс.
$114,268 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising euro area inflation, now averaging 2.6–2.7 percent for 2026 according to revised ECB staff projections, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one policy tightening this year. Energy price spikes tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation above the 2 percent target in April data, prompting the Governing Council to signal a data-dependent approach at its late-April meeting while leaving the deposit facility rate at 2 percent. Hawkish remarks from several council members have reinforced views that a June or September adjustment remains likely, aligning market pricing with two quarter-point moves. Weak growth and anchored longer-term expectations still leave room for flexibility, yet the persistent upside risks to inflation continue to underpin the strong consensus for a 2026 hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$114,268Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rising euro area inflation, now averaging 2.6–2.7 percent for 2026 according to revised ECB staff projections, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one policy tightening this year. Energy price spikes tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation above the 2 percent target in April data, prompting the Governing Council to signal a data-dependent approach at its late-April meeting while leaving the deposit facility rate at 2 percent. Hawkish remarks from several council members have reinforced views that a June or September adjustment remains likely, aligning market pricing with two quarter-point moves. Weak growth and anchored longer-term expectations still leave room for flexibility, yet the persistent upside risks to inflation continue to underpin the strong consensus for a 2026 hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$114,268Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rising euro area inflation, now averaging 2.6–2.7 percent for 2026 according to revised ECB staff projections, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one policy tightening this year. Energy price spikes tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation above the 2 percent target in April data, prompting the Governing Council to signal a data-dependent approach at its late-April meeting while leaving the deposit facility rate at 2 percent. Hawkish remarks from several council members have reinforced views that a June or September adjustment remains likely, aligning market pricing with two quarter-point moves. Weak growth and anchored longer-term expectations still leave room for flexibility, yet the persistent upside risks to inflation continue to underpin the strong consensus for a 2026 hike.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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