The Bank of Russia’s April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.50 percent, its eighth consecutive reduction since last year’s peak of 21 percent, has anchored trader expectations for another easing step at the June 19 meeting. Headline inflation has continued to moderate, reaching 5.6 percent year-over-year in April with weekly price growth near 0.07 percent in early May, while the central bank’s baseline forecast sees annual inflation settling between 4.5 and 5.5 percent by year-end. These developments have pushed the implied probability of a decrease to 85 percent, reflecting sustained disinflationary momentum and the bank’s signal that further cuts remain possible if underlying price pressures stay contained. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainties support the 12.5 percent chance of no change, while any hike remains remote at 2.1 percent absent a clear reversal in incoming data.