Recent half-year data showing 4.7% GDP expansion, combined with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid persistent weak domestic demand and property adjustment, has aligned trader expectations closely with China's official 4.5-5% annual target. Institutional forecasts from the World Bank, OECD, ADB, and others cluster tightly around 4.4-4.7%, reflecting resilient high-tech manufacturing, exports, and targeted policy support that offset softer consumption and fixed-asset investment. This evidence base underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 4.0-5.0% band as the central scenario, while modest probability on 5.0-6.0% accounts for potential incremental fiscal or monetary measures that could lift momentum in the second half.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$875,308 Обс.
$875,308 Обс.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$875,308 Обс.
$875,308 Обс.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$64,833 Обс.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Обс.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Обс.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$80,148 Обс.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$219,722 Обс.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$78,494 Обс.
11%
6.0-7.0%
$82,124 Обс.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Обс.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 Обс.
1%
9.0%+
$115,508 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent half-year data showing 4.7% GDP expansion, combined with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid persistent weak domestic demand and property adjustment, has aligned trader expectations closely with China's official 4.5-5% annual target. Institutional forecasts from the World Bank, OECD, ADB, and others cluster tightly around 4.4-4.7%, reflecting resilient high-tech manufacturing, exports, and targeted policy support that offset softer consumption and fixed-asset investment. This evidence base underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 4.0-5.0% band as the central scenario, while modest probability on 5.0-6.0% accounts for potential incremental fiscal or monetary measures that could lift momentum in the second half.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$875,308Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent half-year data showing 4.7% GDP expansion, combined with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid persistent weak domestic demand and property adjustment, has aligned trader expectations closely with China's official 4.5-5% annual target. Institutional forecasts from the World Bank, OECD, ADB, and others cluster tightly around 4.4-4.7%, reflecting resilient high-tech manufacturing, exports, and targeted policy support that offset softer consumption and fixed-asset investment. This evidence base underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 4.0-5.0% band as the central scenario, while modest probability on 5.0-6.0% accounts for potential incremental fiscal or monetary measures that could lift momentum in the second half.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$875,308Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent half-year data showing 4.7% GDP expansion, combined with Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid persistent weak domestic demand and property adjustment, has aligned trader expectations closely with China's official 4.5-5% annual target. Institutional forecasts from the World Bank, OECD, ADB, and others cluster tightly around 4.4-4.7%, reflecting resilient high-tech manufacturing, exports, and targeted policy support that offset softer consumption and fixed-asset investment. This evidence base underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the 4.0-5.0% band as the central scenario, while modest probability on 5.0-6.0% accounts for potential incremental fiscal or monetary measures that could lift momentum in the second half.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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