China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with the government's annual target set at the March Two Sessions and consistent with consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, World Bank, and private forecasters clustered near 4.5%. First-half official data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by manufacturing, high-tech exports, and infrastructure investment, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft household consumption and property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have produced limited spillovers to date. Traders price the narrow band heavily because recent activity indicators and policy settings point to steady but not accelerated momentum, with structural headwinds in domestic demand offsetting export resilience and leaving little room for outcomes outside the target corridor.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$875,233 Обс.
$875,233 Обс.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
8.0–9.0% 1.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$875,233 Обс.
$875,233 Обс.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$64,833 Обс.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Обс.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Обс.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$80,123 Обс.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$219,722 Обс.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$78,494 Обс.
11%
6.0-7.0%
$82,074 Обс.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Обс.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 Обс.
1%
9.0%+
$115,508 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with the government's annual target set at the March Two Sessions and consistent with consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, World Bank, and private forecasters clustered near 4.5%. First-half official data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by manufacturing, high-tech exports, and infrastructure investment, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft household consumption and property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have produced limited spillovers to date. Traders price the narrow band heavily because recent activity indicators and policy settings point to steady but not accelerated momentum, with structural headwinds in domestic demand offsetting export resilience and leaving little room for outcomes outside the target corridor.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$875,233Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with the government's annual target set at the March Two Sessions and consistent with consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, World Bank, and private forecasters clustered near 4.5%. First-half official data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by manufacturing, high-tech exports, and infrastructure investment, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft household consumption and property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have produced limited spillovers to date. Traders price the narrow band heavily because recent activity indicators and policy settings point to steady but not accelerated momentum, with structural headwinds in domestic demand offsetting export resilience and leaving little room for outcomes outside the target corridor.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$875,233Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's 2026 GDP growth remains centered in the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with the government's annual target set at the March Two Sessions and consistent with consensus projections from the OECD, IMF, World Bank, and private forecasters clustered near 4.5%. First-half official data showed 4.7% expansion, driven by manufacturing, high-tech exports, and infrastructure investment, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft household consumption and property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have produced limited spillovers to date. Traders price the narrow band heavily because recent activity indicators and policy settings point to steady but not accelerated momentum, with structural headwinds in domestic demand offsetting export resilience and leaving little room for outcomes outside the target corridor.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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