Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 1.1% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding consensus and reflecting robust household consumption and public spending amid a still-resilient labor market. Market-implied odds cluster around moderate Q2 outcomes as traders price in a slowdown driven by the central bank's elevated policy rate, fading fiscal stimulus, and potential inflation pressures from external energy shocks eroding real incomes. Fixed investment growth is normalizing from elevated levels while net exports face headwinds from stronger imports. Analysts' models point to around 0.3% sequential growth for the quarter, with annual 2026 forecasts ranging from 1.6% to 2.3% across institutions. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and inflation will refine these probabilities ahead of the official Q2 print.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено≥1.5% 50%
1.2%–1.4% 49%
0.3%–0.5% 47%
<0.0% 31%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
<0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.2%
22%
0.3%–0.5%
47%
0.6%–0.8%
48%
0.9%–1.1%
45%
1.2%–1.4%
49%
≥1.5%
50%
≥1.5% 50%
1.2%–1.4% 49%
0.3%–0.5% 47%
<0.0% 31%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
<0.0%
$106 Обс.
22%
0.0%–0.2%
$70 Обс.
22%
0.3%–0.5%
$70 Обс.
47%
0.6%–0.8%
$69 Обс.
48%
0.9%–1.1%
$69 Обс.
45%
1.2%–1.4%
$101 Обс.
49%
≥1.5%
$101 Обс.
50%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 1.1% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding consensus and reflecting robust household consumption and public spending amid a still-resilient labor market. Market-implied odds cluster around moderate Q2 outcomes as traders price in a slowdown driven by the central bank's elevated policy rate, fading fiscal stimulus, and potential inflation pressures from external energy shocks eroding real incomes. Fixed investment growth is normalizing from elevated levels while net exports face headwinds from stronger imports. Analysts' models point to around 0.3% sequential growth for the quarter, with annual 2026 forecasts ranging from 1.6% to 2.3% across institutions. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and inflation will refine these probabilities ahead of the official Q2 print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Ринок відкрито: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Обсяг
$587Ринок відкрито
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 1.1% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding consensus and reflecting robust household consumption and public spending amid a still-resilient labor market. Market-implied odds cluster around moderate Q2 outcomes as traders price in a slowdown driven by the central bank's elevated policy rate, fading fiscal stimulus, and potential inflation pressures from external energy shocks eroding real incomes. Fixed investment growth is normalizing from elevated levels while net exports face headwinds from stronger imports. Analysts' models point to around 0.3% sequential growth for the quarter, with annual 2026 forecasts ranging from 1.6% to 2.3% across institutions. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and inflation will refine these probabilities ahead of the official Q2 print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Обсяг
$587Ринок відкрито
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP expanded 1.1% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding consensus and reflecting robust household consumption and public spending amid a still-resilient labor market. Market-implied odds cluster around moderate Q2 outcomes as traders price in a slowdown driven by the central bank's elevated policy rate, fading fiscal stimulus, and potential inflation pressures from external energy shocks eroding real incomes. Fixed investment growth is normalizing from elevated levels while net exports face headwinds from stronger imports. Analysts' models point to around 0.3% sequential growth for the quarter, with annual 2026 forecasts ranging from 1.6% to 2.3% across institutions. Key upcoming releases on industrial production, retail sales, and inflation will refine these probabilities ahead of the official Q2 print.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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