UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026 cluster around 0.9-1.1% across major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflecting subdued momentum amid elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions and a loosening labor market. Recent ONS data show 0.7% expansion in the three months to May 2026 and 0.6% in Q1, with Bank of England projections indicating underlying growth below potential supply rates as inflation eased to 2.6% in June. These conditions support the 55% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual growth while sustaining the 29% odds on 0-1%, consistent with consensus expectations of modest expansion constrained by higher borrowing costs and external shocks. Key upcoming data releases and the Bank’s next Monetary Policy Report will provide further signals on whether activity stabilizes near these levels.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1-2% 62.0%
0-1% 32%
<0 5.1%
2-3% 4.2%
$71,363 Обс.
$71,363 Обс.
Feb 12, 2027
<0
5%
0-1%
32%
1-2%
62%
2-3%
4%
3-4%
2%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 62.0%
0-1% 32%
<0 5.1%
2-3% 4.2%
$71,363 Обс.
$71,363 Обс.
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$11,048 Обс.
5%
0-1%
$18,529 Обс.
32%
1-2%
$22,972 Обс.
62%
2-3%
$4,139 Обс.
4%
3-4%
$3,126 Обс.
2%
4-5%
$8,268 Обс.
<1%
5%+
$3,282 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026 cluster around 0.9-1.1% across major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflecting subdued momentum amid elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions and a loosening labor market. Recent ONS data show 0.7% expansion in the three months to May 2026 and 0.6% in Q1, with Bank of England projections indicating underlying growth below potential supply rates as inflation eased to 2.6% in June. These conditions support the 55% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual growth while sustaining the 29% odds on 0-1%, consistent with consensus expectations of modest expansion constrained by higher borrowing costs and external shocks. Key upcoming data releases and the Bank’s next Monetary Policy Report will provide further signals on whether activity stabilizes near these levels.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Обсяг
$71,363Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026 cluster around 0.9-1.1% across major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflecting subdued momentum amid elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions and a loosening labor market. Recent ONS data show 0.7% expansion in the three months to May 2026 and 0.6% in Q1, with Bank of England projections indicating underlying growth below potential supply rates as inflation eased to 2.6% in June. These conditions support the 55% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual growth while sustaining the 29% odds on 0-1%, consistent with consensus expectations of modest expansion constrained by higher borrowing costs and external shocks. Key upcoming data releases and the Bank’s next Monetary Policy Report will provide further signals on whether activity stabilizes near these levels.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$71,363Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026 cluster around 0.9-1.1% across major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY, reflecting subdued momentum amid elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions and a loosening labor market. Recent ONS data show 0.7% expansion in the three months to May 2026 and 0.6% in Q1, with Bank of England projections indicating underlying growth below potential supply rates as inflation eased to 2.6% in June. These conditions support the 55% market-implied probability for 1-2% annual growth while sustaining the 29% odds on 0-1%, consistent with consensus expectations of modest expansion constrained by higher borrowing costs and external shocks. Key upcoming data releases and the Bank’s next Monetary Policy Report will provide further signals on whether activity stabilizes near these levels.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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