Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound after a Q1 contraction has anchored trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 year-over-year growth near 1.5-2.5%, with market-implied odds tightly clustered in those bins. External demand via U.S. exports and nearshoring continues to provide support, while subdued consumption, weak private investment, and USMCA review uncertainty cap upside momentum. The Finance Ministry’s recent downgrade of full-year 2026 forecasts to 1-2% aligns with private-sector estimates around 1.1-1.4%, reflecting a cautious policy backdrop with Banxico holding its rate at 6.5% amid inflation near 3.3%. Key upcoming releases on industrial production and retail sales through late September will shape final positioning ahead of the October 30 data release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1.5-2.0% 32%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 16%
1.0-1.5% 13.1%
$25,734 Обс.
$25,734 Обс.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
13%
1.5-2.0%
32%
2.0-2.5%
31%
2.5-3.0%
16%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
4%
1.5-2.0% 32%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 16%
1.0-1.5% 13.1%
$25,734 Обс.
$25,734 Обс.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$474 Обс.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 Обс.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,438 Обс.
13%
1.5-2.0%
$8,548 Обс.
32%
2.0-2.5%
$10,918 Обс.
31%
2.5-3.0%
$1,133 Обс.
16%
3.0-3.5%
$433 Обс.
1%
3.5%+
$438 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound after a Q1 contraction has anchored trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 year-over-year growth near 1.5-2.5%, with market-implied odds tightly clustered in those bins. External demand via U.S. exports and nearshoring continues to provide support, while subdued consumption, weak private investment, and USMCA review uncertainty cap upside momentum. The Finance Ministry’s recent downgrade of full-year 2026 forecasts to 1-2% aligns with private-sector estimates around 1.1-1.4%, reflecting a cautious policy backdrop with Banxico holding its rate at 6.5% amid inflation near 3.3%. Key upcoming releases on industrial production and retail sales through late September will shape final positioning ahead of the October 30 data release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$25,734Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound after a Q1 contraction has anchored trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 year-over-year growth near 1.5-2.5%, with market-implied odds tightly clustered in those bins. External demand via U.S. exports and nearshoring continues to provide support, while subdued consumption, weak private investment, and USMCA review uncertainty cap upside momentum. The Finance Ministry’s recent downgrade of full-year 2026 forecasts to 1-2% aligns with private-sector estimates around 1.1-1.4%, reflecting a cautious policy backdrop with Banxico holding its rate at 6.5% amid inflation near 3.3%. Key upcoming releases on industrial production and retail sales through late September will shape final positioning ahead of the October 30 data release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$25,734Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound after a Q1 contraction has anchored trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 year-over-year growth near 1.5-2.5%, with market-implied odds tightly clustered in those bins. External demand via U.S. exports and nearshoring continues to provide support, while subdued consumption, weak private investment, and USMCA review uncertainty cap upside momentum. The Finance Ministry’s recent downgrade of full-year 2026 forecasts to 1-2% aligns with private-sector estimates around 1.1-1.4%, reflecting a cautious policy backdrop with Banxico holding its rate at 6.5% amid inflation near 3.3%. Key upcoming releases on industrial production and retail sales through late September will shape final positioning ahead of the October 30 data release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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