Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth—rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q2 near 3.7% as of mid-May. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment steady around 4.4%, and steady consumer spending have supported this positioning despite moderating momentum and tariff-induced inflationary pressures noted in recent IMF and CBO analyses. The 20% odds on sub-0.5% growth capture tail risks from policy uncertainty and potential slowdowns, with fragmented mid-range bins underscoring trader caution. Key catalysts include the Q2 GDP release in late July and upcoming FOMC projections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
<0.5% 18.4%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
>2.5% 16%
2.0–2.5% 13%
$28,008 Обс.
$28,008 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
18%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
13%
>2.5%
35%
<0.5% 18.4%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
>2.5% 16%
2.0–2.5% 13%
$28,008 Обс.
$28,008 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,879 Обс.
18%
0.5–1.0%
$15,278 Обс.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 Обс.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,499 Обс.
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,757 Обс.
13%
>2.5%
$4,061 Обс.
35%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth—rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q2 near 3.7% as of mid-May. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment steady around 4.4%, and steady consumer spending have supported this positioning despite moderating momentum and tariff-induced inflationary pressures noted in recent IMF and CBO analyses. The 20% odds on sub-0.5% growth capture tail risks from policy uncertainty and potential slowdowns, with fragmented mid-range bins underscoring trader caution. Key catalysts include the Q2 GDP release in late July and upcoming FOMC projections.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$28,008Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth—rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q2 near 3.7% as of mid-May. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment steady around 4.4%, and steady consumer spending have supported this positioning despite moderating momentum and tariff-induced inflationary pressures noted in recent IMF and CBO analyses. The 20% odds on sub-0.5% growth capture tail risks from policy uncertainty and potential slowdowns, with fragmented mid-range bins underscoring trader caution. Key catalysts include the Q2 GDP release in late July and upcoming FOMC projections.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$28,008Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 45% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth—rebounding sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q2 near 3.7% as of mid-May. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment steady around 4.4%, and steady consumer spending have supported this positioning despite moderating momentum and tariff-induced inflationary pressures noted in recent IMF and CBO analyses. The 20% odds on sub-0.5% growth capture tail risks from policy uncertainty and potential slowdowns, with fragmented mid-range bins underscoring trader caution. Key catalysts include the Q2 GDP release in late July and upcoming FOMC projections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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