Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains tightly contested between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting forecaster dispersion around the 2.2% central tendency. Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters revisions lowered the 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2% from 2.5% earlier in the year, citing softer consumer spending amid affordability constraints and tariff headwinds, even as business fixed investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies provides support. CBO and FOMC June projections similarly cluster near 2.2%, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized rate. Key swing factors include the pace of labor-market cooling, the persistence of fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and any further moderation in inflation that could influence monetary easing. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around the investment-led transition versus potential demand softness.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 32%
1.5–2.0% 30.9%
>2.5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.3%
$58,052 Обс.
$58,052 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
8%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
31%
2.0–2.5%
32%
>2.5%
19%
2.0–2.5% 32%
1.5–2.0% 30.9%
>2.5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.3%
$58,052 Обс.
$58,052 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,439 Обс.
8%
0.5–1.0%
$17,161 Обс.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,814 Обс.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$6,622 Обс.
31%
2.0–2.5%
$7,085 Обс.
32%
>2.5%
$15,931 Обс.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains tightly contested between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting forecaster dispersion around the 2.2% central tendency. Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters revisions lowered the 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2% from 2.5% earlier in the year, citing softer consumer spending amid affordability constraints and tariff headwinds, even as business fixed investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies provides support. CBO and FOMC June projections similarly cluster near 2.2%, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized rate. Key swing factors include the pace of labor-market cooling, the persistence of fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and any further moderation in inflation that could influence monetary easing. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around the investment-led transition versus potential demand softness.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$58,052Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains tightly contested between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting forecaster dispersion around the 2.2% central tendency. Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters revisions lowered the 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2% from 2.5% earlier in the year, citing softer consumer spending amid affordability constraints and tariff headwinds, even as business fixed investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies provides support. CBO and FOMC June projections similarly cluster near 2.2%, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized rate. Key swing factors include the pace of labor-market cooling, the persistence of fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and any further moderation in inflation that could influence monetary easing. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around the investment-led transition versus potential demand softness.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$58,052Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Polymarket for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains tightly contested between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting forecaster dispersion around the 2.2% central tendency. Recent Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters revisions lowered the 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2% from 2.5% earlier in the year, citing softer consumer spending amid affordability constraints and tariff headwinds, even as business fixed investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies provides support. CBO and FOMC June projections similarly cluster near 2.2%, with Q1 2026 GDP printing at a 1.6% annualized rate. Key swing factors include the pace of labor-market cooling, the persistence of fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and any further moderation in inflation that could influence monetary easing. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at risk, underscoring uncertainty around the investment-led transition versus potential demand softness.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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