**Trader consensus for Brazil’s Q3 2026 QoQ GDP growth clusters around the 0.0–0.2% band at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting the sharp slowdown evident in Q2’s 0.5% expansion.** That print, released September 1 and above the 0.4% consensus but well below Q1’s 1.1%, was driven by inventory accumulation while final demand contracted, with household consumption falling 0.4% amid elevated real borrowing costs. The Central Bank’s ongoing Selic easing—to 13.75%—has yet to offset restrictive policy effects, fading fiscal stimulus, and softer labor-market momentum. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness in services and manufacturing, partially offset by agriculture and commodity exports, keeping the distribution of outcomes wide and centered near zero. Market-implied odds price in a high degree of uncertainty ahead of the December IBGE release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.0% to 0.2% 32%
0.3% to 0.5% 18.6%
-0.3% to -0.1% 18%
<-0.3% 8.0%
$12,858 Обс.
$12,858 Обс.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
11%
-0.3% to -0.1%
18%
0.0% to 0.2%
32%
0.3% to 0.5%
19%
0.6% to 0.8%
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
5%
≥1.2%
<1%
0.0% to 0.2% 32%
0.3% to 0.5% 18.6%
-0.3% to -0.1% 18%
<-0.3% 8.0%
$12,858 Обс.
$12,858 Обс.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
$225 Обс.
11%
-0.3% to -0.1%
$2,248 Обс.
18%
0.0% to 0.2%
$7,807 Обс.
32%
0.3% to 0.5%
$1,928 Обс.
19%
0.6% to 0.8%
$214 Обс.
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
$235 Обс.
5%
≥1.2%
$202 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Trader consensus for Brazil’s Q3 2026 QoQ GDP growth clusters around the 0.0–0.2% band at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting the sharp slowdown evident in Q2’s 0.5% expansion.** That print, released September 1 and above the 0.4% consensus but well below Q1’s 1.1%, was driven by inventory accumulation while final demand contracted, with household consumption falling 0.4% amid elevated real borrowing costs. The Central Bank’s ongoing Selic easing—to 13.75%—has yet to offset restrictive policy effects, fading fiscal stimulus, and softer labor-market momentum. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness in services and manufacturing, partially offset by agriculture and commodity exports, keeping the distribution of outcomes wide and centered near zero. Market-implied odds price in a high degree of uncertainty ahead of the December IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,858Дата завершення
Dec 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Trader consensus for Brazil’s Q3 2026 QoQ GDP growth clusters around the 0.0–0.2% band at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting the sharp slowdown evident in Q2’s 0.5% expansion.** That print, released September 1 and above the 0.4% consensus but well below Q1’s 1.1%, was driven by inventory accumulation while final demand contracted, with household consumption falling 0.4% amid elevated real borrowing costs. The Central Bank’s ongoing Selic easing—to 13.75%—has yet to offset restrictive policy effects, fading fiscal stimulus, and softer labor-market momentum. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness in services and manufacturing, partially offset by agriculture and commodity exports, keeping the distribution of outcomes wide and centered near zero. Market-implied odds price in a high degree of uncertainty ahead of the December IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Обсяг
$12,858Дата завершення
Dec 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus for Brazil’s Q3 2026 QoQ GDP growth clusters around the 0.0–0.2% band at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting the sharp slowdown evident in Q2’s 0.5% expansion.** That print, released September 1 and above the 0.4% consensus but well below Q1’s 1.1%, was driven by inventory accumulation while final demand contracted, with household consumption falling 0.4% amid elevated real borrowing costs. The Central Bank’s ongoing Selic easing—to 13.75%—has yet to offset restrictive policy effects, fading fiscal stimulus, and softer labor-market momentum. High-frequency indicators point to continued weakness in services and manufacturing, partially offset by agriculture and commodity exports, keeping the distribution of outcomes wide and centered near zero. Market-implied odds price in a high degree of uncertainty ahead of the December IBGE release.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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