Recent private-sector forecasts for Japan’s Q3 2026 real GDP, including the September JCER ESP survey average of +0.25% QoQ annualized and Dai-ichi Life’s +0.7% projection, align closely with the market-implied odds favoring the 0.0–1.6% range. Q2’s +0.4% QoQ outturn and upward revisions reflect steady private consumption underpinned by solid wage gains, low unemployment near 2.4%, and resilient business investment, offset by higher import costs from elevated oil prices and yen weakness. The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% underscores tightening policy amid core CPI near 1.9% and broadening price pressures, which may modestly restrain near-term momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include the November preliminary Q3 release and October data on exports and retail sales.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.0%–0.8% 33.3%
0.8%–1.6% 28%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
<-2.4% 6.6%
$27,264 Обс.
$27,264 Обс.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
7%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
21%
0.0%–0.8%
33%
0.8%–1.6%
36%
1.6%–2.4%
6%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 33.3%
0.8%–1.6% 28%
-0.8%–0.0% 21%
<-2.4% 6.6%
$27,264 Обс.
$27,264 Обс.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$604 Обс.
7%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 Обс.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Обс.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,635 Обс.
21%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,248 Обс.
33%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,829 Обс.
36%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Обс.
6%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 Обс.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 Обс.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent private-sector forecasts for Japan’s Q3 2026 real GDP, including the September JCER ESP survey average of +0.25% QoQ annualized and Dai-ichi Life’s +0.7% projection, align closely with the market-implied odds favoring the 0.0–1.6% range. Q2’s +0.4% QoQ outturn and upward revisions reflect steady private consumption underpinned by solid wage gains, low unemployment near 2.4%, and resilient business investment, offset by higher import costs from elevated oil prices and yen weakness. The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% underscores tightening policy amid core CPI near 1.9% and broadening price pressures, which may modestly restrain near-term momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include the November preliminary Q3 release and October data on exports and retail sales.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$27,264Дата завершення
Nov 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent private-sector forecasts for Japan’s Q3 2026 real GDP, including the September JCER ESP survey average of +0.25% QoQ annualized and Dai-ichi Life’s +0.7% projection, align closely with the market-implied odds favoring the 0.0–1.6% range. Q2’s +0.4% QoQ outturn and upward revisions reflect steady private consumption underpinned by solid wage gains, low unemployment near 2.4%, and resilient business investment, offset by higher import costs from elevated oil prices and yen weakness. The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% underscores tightening policy amid core CPI near 1.9% and broadening price pressures, which may modestly restrain near-term momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include the November preliminary Q3 release and October data on exports and retail sales.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Обсяг
$27,264Дата завершення
Nov 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent private-sector forecasts for Japan’s Q3 2026 real GDP, including the September JCER ESP survey average of +0.25% QoQ annualized and Dai-ichi Life’s +0.7% projection, align closely with the market-implied odds favoring the 0.0–1.6% range. Q2’s +0.4% QoQ outturn and upward revisions reflect steady private consumption underpinned by solid wage gains, low unemployment near 2.4%, and resilient business investment, offset by higher import costs from elevated oil prices and yen weakness. The Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% underscores tightening policy amid core CPI near 1.9% and broadening price pressures, which may modestly restrain near-term momentum. Key upcoming catalysts include the November preliminary Q3 release and October data on exports and retail sales.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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