Xi Jinping's entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army drives the 96.1% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior general Zhang Youxia, have reinforced loyalty without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The closed political system, absence of independent opposition, and Xi's indefinite tenure following the 2022 Party Congress limit pathways for internal challenges. With only months remaining until the resolution date, traders see continuity in centralized authority as the dominant baseline. Late developments such as acute leadership health issues, severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity, or unprecedented military unrest could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns and institutional safeguards make these outcomes unlikely in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4% шанс
$153,750 Обс.
$153,750 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
4% шанс
$153,750 Обс.
$153,750 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army drives the 96.1% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior general Zhang Youxia, have reinforced loyalty without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The closed political system, absence of independent opposition, and Xi's indefinite tenure following the 2022 Party Congress limit pathways for internal challenges. With only months remaining until the resolution date, traders see continuity in centralized authority as the dominant baseline. Late developments such as acute leadership health issues, severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity, or unprecedented military unrest could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns and institutional safeguards make these outcomes unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$153,750Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army drives the 96.1% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior general Zhang Youxia, have reinforced loyalty without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The closed political system, absence of independent opposition, and Xi's indefinite tenure following the 2022 Party Congress limit pathways for internal challenges. With only months remaining until the resolution date, traders see continuity in centralized authority as the dominant baseline. Late developments such as acute leadership health issues, severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity, or unprecedented military unrest could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns and institutional safeguards make these outcomes unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$153,750Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping's entrenched control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army drives the 96.1% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior general Zhang Youxia, have reinforced loyalty without triggering organized resistance or factional revolt. The closed political system, absence of independent opposition, and Xi's indefinite tenure following the 2022 Party Congress limit pathways for internal challenges. With only months remaining until the resolution date, traders see continuity in centralized authority as the dominant baseline. Late developments such as acute leadership health issues, severe economic shocks fracturing elite unity, or unprecedented military unrest could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns and institutional safeguards make these outcomes unlikely in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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