Israel maintains a security zone in southern Lebanon occupying roughly 6 percent of the territory following the 2024–2025 conflict with Hezbollah, under a June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement that ties any phased IDF withdrawal to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, Hezbollah disarmament beyond the Litani River, and enforcement mechanisms. Progress has stalled amid mutual sequencing disputes, with Israel conducting ongoing operations against remaining Hezbollah infrastructure and reducing some units while insisting withdrawals remain conditions-based rather than time-bound. Upcoming U.S.-mediated talks scheduled for October 20, the end of the UNIFIL mandate in December 2026, and Israel’s general elections add near-term variables. Lebanese officials continue pressing for full withdrawal and state authority consolidation, while Hezbollah leadership rejects disarmament absent Israeli pullback. These dynamics keep trader focus on verifiable implementation steps and security outcomes over the coming months.