US-brokered talks in Washington produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April 16 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, yet Israeli forces continue enforcing a buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Israel has tied any full ground-force withdrawal to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River and enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, conditions that remain unmet amid mutual ceasefire violations and rocket-drone exchanges. Lebanese officials demand complete Israeli pullback before further political or reconstruction steps, while upcoming June diplomatic rounds could either advance security arrangements or expose new escalation risks that delay resolution. Traders therefore price near-term withdrawal probabilities very low.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,486,526 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
2%
June 30
10%
$1,486,526 Обс.
May 31
$1,212,582 Обс.
2%
June 30
$198,938 Обс.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.US-brokered talks in Washington produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April 16 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, yet Israeli forces continue enforcing a buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Israel has tied any full ground-force withdrawal to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River and enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, conditions that remain unmet amid mutual ceasefire violations and rocket-drone exchanges. Lebanese officials demand complete Israeli pullback before further political or reconstruction steps, while upcoming June diplomatic rounds could either advance security arrangements or expose new escalation risks that delay resolution. Traders therefore price near-term withdrawal probabilities very low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,486,526Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.US-brokered talks in Washington produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April 16 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, yet Israeli forces continue enforcing a buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Israel has tied any full ground-force withdrawal to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River and enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, conditions that remain unmet amid mutual ceasefire violations and rocket-drone exchanges. Lebanese officials demand complete Israeli pullback before further political or reconstruction steps, while upcoming June diplomatic rounds could either advance security arrangements or expose new escalation risks that delay resolution. Traders therefore price near-term withdrawal probabilities very low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Обсяг
$1,486,526Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered talks in Washington produced a 45-day extension of the fragile April 16 ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, yet Israeli forces continue enforcing a buffer zone inside southern Lebanon while conducting strikes on Hezbollah targets. Israel has tied any full ground-force withdrawal to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River and enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, conditions that remain unmet amid mutual ceasefire violations and rocket-drone exchanges. Lebanese officials demand complete Israeli pullback before further political or reconstruction steps, while upcoming June diplomatic rounds could either advance security arrangements or expose new escalation risks that delay resolution. Traders therefore price near-term withdrawal probabilities very low.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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