Tensions between the United States and Colombia peaked in January 2026 after U.S. military action in Venezuela, when President Trump publicly suggested operations against Colombian drug production networks and President Petro warned of armed resistance. Those statements prompted diplomatic outreach, including a February White House meeting that reduced immediate friction, followed by continued counternarcotics coordination despite ongoing sanctions and aid reviews. Colombia’s status as a longstanding security partner, institutional military ties, and the May 2026 presidential election—widely expected to produce a government more aligned with Washington—have reinforced trader expectations that full-scale invasion remains improbable. A 96.3% “No” price reflects this consensus on limited escalation paths. Late-year shifts could still arise from sharp increases in cocaine flows, a breakdown in bilateral talks, or an unforeseen regional crisis prompting direct U.S. strikes, though none appear imminent.