Recent diplomatic and military cooperation has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026. Early-year tensions peaked after U.S. strikes in Venezuela when President Trump publicly floated operations targeting Colombian drug networks and President Petro described a "real threat," prompting Colombian officials to affirm defensive preparations. Those frictions eased following Colombia’s 2026 presidential transition to Abelardo de la Espriella, whose government promptly authorized joint U.S.-Colombian counter-narcotics operations under the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition. With no U.S. troop deployments or unilateral strikes reported through mid-August and shared counternarcotics objectives now driving bilateral planning, the implied 97.7 percent probability on “No” reflects the absence of escalation triggers. Late-year shifts would require abrupt diplomatic rupture or major new drug-related incidents capable of overriding the current cooperative framework.