Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure, impairing centrifuge operations, and isolating or burying near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. IAEA assessments highlight ongoing gaps in safeguards access and continuity of knowledge but report no verified weaponization activities or test preparations at sites such as Taleghan 2. U.S. intelligence estimates place Iran's timeline to produce a weapon at nine to twelve months if leaders chose to pursue that path. Slow reconstruction efforts amid heightened detection risks further constrain near-term options. These verified setbacks to enrichment and weaponization pathways underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% шанс
$235,602 Обс.
$235,602 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$235,602 Обс.
$235,602 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure, impairing centrifuge operations, and isolating or burying near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. IAEA assessments highlight ongoing gaps in safeguards access and continuity of knowledge but report no verified weaponization activities or test preparations at sites such as Taleghan 2. U.S. intelligence estimates place Iran's timeline to produce a weapon at nine to twelve months if leaders chose to pursue that path. Slow reconstruction efforts amid heightened detection risks further constrain near-term options. These verified setbacks to enrichment and weaponization pathways underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$235,602Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure, impairing centrifuge operations, and isolating or burying near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. IAEA assessments highlight ongoing gaps in safeguards access and continuity of knowledge but report no verified weaponization activities or test preparations at sites such as Taleghan 2. U.S. intelligence estimates place Iran's timeline to produce a weapon at nine to twelve months if leaders chose to pursue that path. Slow reconstruction efforts amid heightened detection risks further constrain near-term options. These verified setbacks to enrichment and weaponization pathways underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$235,602Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure, impairing centrifuge operations, and isolating or burying near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles. IAEA assessments highlight ongoing gaps in safeguards access and continuity of knowledge but report no verified weaponization activities or test preparations at sites such as Taleghan 2. U.S. intelligence estimates place Iran's timeline to produce a weapon at nine to twelve months if leaders chose to pursue that path. Slow reconstruction efforts amid heightened detection risks further constrain near-term options. These verified setbacks to enrichment and weaponization pathways underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання