Ongoing conflict with Russia remains the dominant barrier to Ukraine’s NATO accession, as alliance rules require unanimous member consent and active hostilities raise Article 5 complications. Recent statements from Ukrainian officials, including former military commander Valery Zaluzhnyi, underscore that Kyiv falls short of NATO interoperability and standards, while the July 2026 Ankara Summit produced pledges of sustained military aid without extending an invitation or timeline. Traders assign overwhelming probability to “No” before 2027 because these structural and procedural hurdles have shown little movement. Late resolution could still shift if a swift ceasefire enables rapid reforms and consensus, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.