US-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 focus on prisoner exchanges and post-war security guarantees amid persistent territorial disagreements, with the first such direct engagement in nine months. Overnight incidents in the Baltics saw NATO jets fail in two interception attempts against an unidentified drone entering from Belarus during Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, producing no confirmed downings of Russian-origin systems. Earlier Romanian intercepts of suspected Russian drones occurred weeks prior in October. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 99.5% implied probability on "No," as no qualifying NATO action has materialized ahead of the current negotiation window. A sudden escalation or verified Russian drone incursion during the talks could still shift the outcome.