Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO integration through ongoing partnership programs and allied affirmations of its Euro-Atlantic path, including recent pledges of sustained military assistance at the 2026 Ankara Summit. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced signals that Kyiv would formally renounce membership aspirations by late August, amid continued battlefield developments and stalled peace frameworks that historically link neutrality demands to broader territorial or security concessions. The compressed timeline to August 31 further limits scope for such a reversal. Trader consensus at 98.8% on “No” aligns with these structural positions, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-mediated talks or a sudden ceasefire framework could still introduce limited volatility before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$22,833 Обс.
$22,833 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
$22,833 Обс.
$22,833 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO integration through ongoing partnership programs and allied affirmations of its Euro-Atlantic path, including recent pledges of sustained military assistance at the 2026 Ankara Summit. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced signals that Kyiv would formally renounce membership aspirations by late August, amid continued battlefield developments and stalled peace frameworks that historically link neutrality demands to broader territorial or security concessions. The compressed timeline to August 31 further limits scope for such a reversal. Trader consensus at 98.8% on “No” aligns with these structural positions, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-mediated talks or a sudden ceasefire framework could still introduce limited volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$22,833Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO integration through ongoing partnership programs and allied affirmations of its Euro-Atlantic path, including recent pledges of sustained military assistance at the 2026 Ankara Summit. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced signals that Kyiv would formally renounce membership aspirations by late August, amid continued battlefield developments and stalled peace frameworks that historically link neutrality demands to broader territorial or security concessions. The compressed timeline to August 31 further limits scope for such a reversal. Trader consensus at 98.8% on “No” aligns with these structural positions, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-mediated talks or a sudden ceasefire framework could still introduce limited volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Обсяг
$22,833Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine maintains its official commitment to NATO integration through ongoing partnership programs and allied affirmations of its Euro-Atlantic path, including recent pledges of sustained military assistance at the 2026 Ankara Summit. No active bilateral or multilateral negotiations have produced signals that Kyiv would formally renounce membership aspirations by late August, amid continued battlefield developments and stalled peace frameworks that historically link neutrality demands to broader territorial or security concessions. The compressed timeline to August 31 further limits scope for such a reversal. Trader consensus at 98.8% on “No” aligns with these structural positions, though an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-mediated talks or a sudden ceasefire framework could still introduce limited volatility before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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