Persistent gaps on core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees continue to block direct leader-level engagement between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Russia rejected Zelenskyy’s June 2026 open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting, with Moscow insisting on prior expert-level agreements and preconditions including Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied areas and limits on NATO alignment. Earlier 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges without advancing political talks. Ongoing military operations, including recent Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia and Russian ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian targets, reflect sustained battlefield pressure rather than diplomatic momentum. No high-level summit is currently scheduled before the August 31, 2026 resolution window, while Russia’s September parliamentary elections may shape Moscow’s negotiating stance after that date. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers to an imminent handshake.