Diplomatic efforts to arrange direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have remained stalled through mid-2026 despite repeated US-mediated rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi. Zelenskyy’s June 2026 open letter proposing a neutral-third-country meeting received a swift rejection from Putin, who stated there was “no point” absent prior agreement on core issues such as territorial recognition and security guarantees. Russia has signaled openness to resuming negotiations only on the basis of earlier frameworks from Istanbul and Anchorage plus current battlefield lines, while Ukraine continues long-range strikes and insists on a ceasefire first. No bilateral leader encounter or handshake has occurred since the 2022 invasion, and scheduled US envoy visits or NATO-summit side discussions have produced prisoner exchanges but no breakthrough toward a summit. Traders therefore weigh the low likelihood of an imminent direct meeting against the possibility of renewed high-level pressure or a sudden diplomatic opening.