The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and advanced simulations to sustain arsenal confidence without full-yield detonations. President Trump’s 2025 statements directing tests “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted initial market attention, yet subsequent clarifications emphasized non-explosive system checks rather than nuclear chain reactions. The most recent development—a September 30, 2026, non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site—focused on refining detection of foreign “decoupled” tests, underscoring emphasis on monitoring capabilities over resumption. These factors, combined with diplomatic, legal, and technical barriers, underpin trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates. No scheduled events within typical resolution windows indicate imminent explosive testing.