Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against U.S. forces deploying to Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any such plans amid the Trump administration's stalled Gaza stabilization efforts. As of early May 2026, the U.S. scaled back its civil-military coordination center near the Gaza border, reducing troop numbers from 190 to 40 personnel in Israel—explicitly outside Gaza—to facilitate aid and ceasefire monitoring without entering the enclave. Official policy emphasizes a multinational International Stabilization Force with contributions from allies like Indonesia, while Washington oversees logistics remotely, echoing post-Afghanistan aversion to ground commitments. Fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire violations and slow ISF pledges reinforce low odds, though major escalation or policy reversal could shift sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
$50,125 Обс.
$50,125 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$50,125 Обс.
$50,125 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against U.S. forces deploying to Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any such plans amid the Trump administration's stalled Gaza stabilization efforts. As of early May 2026, the U.S. scaled back its civil-military coordination center near the Gaza border, reducing troop numbers from 190 to 40 personnel in Israel—explicitly outside Gaza—to facilitate aid and ceasefire monitoring without entering the enclave. Official policy emphasizes a multinational International Stabilization Force with contributions from allies like Indonesia, while Washington oversees logistics remotely, echoing post-Afghanistan aversion to ground commitments. Fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire violations and slow ISF pledges reinforce low odds, though major escalation or policy reversal could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$50,125Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against U.S. forces deploying to Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any such plans amid the Trump administration's stalled Gaza stabilization efforts. As of early May 2026, the U.S. scaled back its civil-military coordination center near the Gaza border, reducing troop numbers from 190 to 40 personnel in Israel—explicitly outside Gaza—to facilitate aid and ceasefire monitoring without entering the enclave. Official policy emphasizes a multinational International Stabilization Force with contributions from allies like Indonesia, while Washington oversees logistics remotely, echoing post-Afghanistan aversion to ground commitments. Fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire violations and slow ISF pledges reinforce low odds, though major escalation or policy reversal could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$50,125Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against U.S. forces deploying to Gaza before 2027, driven by repeated Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any such plans amid the Trump administration's stalled Gaza stabilization efforts. As of early May 2026, the U.S. scaled back its civil-military coordination center near the Gaza border, reducing troop numbers from 190 to 40 personnel in Israel—explicitly outside Gaza—to facilitate aid and ceasefire monitoring without entering the enclave. Official policy emphasizes a multinational International Stabilization Force with contributions from allies like Indonesia, while Washington oversees logistics remotely, echoing post-Afghanistan aversion to ground commitments. Fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire violations and slow ISF pledges reinforce low odds, though major escalation or policy reversal could shift sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання