Israel’s rejection of the Trump administration’s 15-point Gaza disarmament plan on August 9 has emerged as the dominant near-term factor shaping trader assessments of a possible major ground offensive. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas is fully disarmed, citing concerns that the group is using any pause to rebuild tunnels and capabilities. Limited Israeli strikes continued into mid-August, including the first reported fatalities in over a week, while earlier intelligence assessments in June highlighted Hamas resurgence. These developments, alongside Netanyahu’s directives to expand territorial control to around 70 percent of the strip, keep open the prospect of renewed large-scale operations if diplomatic efforts stall or militant activity increases. Upcoming diplomatic or military responses to the rejected plan could quickly alter positioning.