Trump’s December 2025 statements explicitly rejecting U.S. recognition of Somaliland—following Israel’s unilateral move—have anchored trader expectations that the administration will maintain the longstanding One Somalia policy through 2026. The State Department has reaffirmed support for Somalia’s territorial integrity, citing risks to counterterrorism cooperation against al-Shabaab and the Islamic State, while Somalia has countered Somaliland’s offers of mineral access and military basing with its own proposals. Although Republican voices such as Senator Ted Cruz have advocated recognition and Somaliland has intensified lobbying, no formal action, legislation, or diplomatic shift has materialized by mid-2026. With the window closing before 2027 and no scheduled events or breakthroughs altering the administration’s position, the market reflects the low probability of a reversal absent major new catalysts.