Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks, mediated by Pakistan and centered on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz blockade, have produced a fragile ceasefire since early April that reduces the near-term likelihood of any ground entry into Iran by June 30. Recent naval confrontations, including US strikes on Iranian tankers and redirected vessels in early May, sustain pressure through air and sea operations rather than troop movements. Trader consensus prices the leading outcomes—any U.S. House member or senator entering—at 5% or below, reflecting historical precedent for limited direct incursions and the short resolution window amid continued brinkmanship. Israel has signaled readiness to resume strikes but remains dependent on U.S. coordination, while regime consolidation under new leadership further constrains internal shifts that could invite entry. Scheduled high-level reviews through late May represent the primary catalysts that could still alter these low implied probabilities before the deadline.